The 2021 German election has become a focal point of global attention as it carries immense significance for the future of not only Germany but also the entire European Union. After 16 years of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s leadership, Germany is now at a critical juncture in its political history, and the outcome of this election has the potential to shape the trajectory of Europe’s future for decades to come. This election comes at a time of significant economic, social, and political challenges, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and rising populism. As such, it is a crucial moment for the continent, and the world is watching with bated breath to see what direction Germany will take.
A New Chancellor in 16 Years
For those who have been following the goings and happenings around the world, Angela Merkel is a name they would not be unfamiliar with. Serving as the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany since 2005, when she engineered a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, the two major parties in German politics, in the face of a hung result with no outright winner.
The image of presiding over a grand bargain of every party involved in the negotiation has stuck with Angela Merkel, both politically as well as policy-wise. Merkel has been a staunch pro-Europe supporter in the European arena, with her policies focusing on creating a stronger & together Europe. Under her leadership, Europe has tackled many major crises, including the Eurozone crisis of 2007, the Greek Debt Crisis, and the Migrant crisis of 2015, the last of which cost her severely domestically and resulted in the rise of far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) from zero seats in 2013 Federal election to a commanding 94 seats in Bundestag after 2017 elections. But even after the setback, Merkel is still by far Germany’s most popular leader both at home and abroad, with The New York Times dubbing Merkel as “the Liberal West’s Last Defender” after the election of Donald Trump in 2016.
But the European stability is coming to an end with Merkel announcing her intention not to seek re-election as Chancellor in 2021. Germany is bound to elect a new Chancellor for the first time in 16 years, with the 2021 German election set to take place on Sept 26th.
Is it time for a Green Chancellor?
A wind of change is blowing in Germany, and its color is Green. Germany’s Green Party Alliance 90/The Greens, according to Opinion polls, is set to have a strong showing in the Sept Federal Election, with some opinion polls even tipping them to be the largest party in the Bundestag, just ahead of the CDU/CSU Union. A strong showing could even push Annalena Baerbock to replace Angela Merkel as Germany’s next Chancellor.
The Greens’ rise is not really a surprise, with SPD, the main left-wing alternative to CDU/CSU seeing a rapid decline in recent years, has allowed a new option to emerge. The Greens will be the main opposition to CDU/CSU and their candidate Armin Laschet.
The parliamentary system in Germany is such that no single political party can win a majority of seats easily. They have to compromise to form a coalition government. If The Greens can gain a significant number of seats in the Bundestag after the 2021 German election, we could see the first Green Chancellor of a major European nation.
AfD down, but not out
AfD, a far-right populist party, was able to capture a substantial vote share and seats in Bundestag in 2017, counting on the anti-immigrant sentiments during the height of the European migrant crisis. But the right-wing populist party has seen a significant dip in support, which is resultant of the recent local polls in the Eastern Germany region – the stronghold of the party, from going first in popularity to third behind CDU/CSU and the Left.
Many reasons have contributed to the rapid fall of AfD, the pandemic, continuous hateful rhetoric leading to violence on the streets, to infighting in the party. The 2021 German Election would be a real test for the AfD, currently the third-largest party in the Bundestag and the main opposition party to the centrist (CDU/CSU-SPD Coalition) government. AfD would like to improve on its tally in 2017, but current polls show that unlikely to be the case.
The Impact on the European Stage
It matters significantly to Europe who is elected as the Chancellor of Germany come September. Germany is not just a political heavyweight in the European Union but is also a financial powerhouse. A Green victory in September would not only fundamentally change the power dynamics in the European Union, which is at present controlled by the right-wing EPP, but it would also push for more Green and environment-friendly policies across the 27 member states.
And this is not even counting the encouragement the Green Party across Europe would get, where they are only in power in Austria, and that too a minor coalition partner.
Read more on What a Green Chancellor would mean for Europe?
update (06/07/21):
Recent polls are a setback for the Greens.
update (16/07/21):
Flood Disaster in Germany puts the Climate issue at the Centre Stage. An opportunity for Greens to display their environmental credentials. Read here.
update (27/09/21):
SPD narrowly edges CDU; Olaf Scholz favorite for Chancellorship
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